Coconut Oil (Copra Oil) prices: Trend, Demand & Supply, Market Analysis | ChemAnalyst

For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America

In the third quarter of 2023, the fluctuating dynamics of Coconut Oil prices in North America, particularly the United States, reflected a blend of market sentiments. Prices surged through mid-Q3, driven by increased demand in major exporting regions, sustaining positive trade momentum in northern markets. This upward trend, however, was intricately linked to a complex interplay of economic factors, input-cost inflation, and shifts in supply and demand dynamics. Bulk ordering spurred by heightened demand intensified consumption momentum, straining the already limited supply and consequently raising prices. In August 2023, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slightly improved, but logistics costs surged due to rising inventory expenses. As September unfolded, Coconut Oil prices saw a decline, attributed to rising local inventory levels, lower fuel costs, and a slight uptick in upstream production. Additionally, a decrease in Copra futures further contributed to the downturn in market conditions.

Asia Pacific

In the third quarter of 2023, Coconut Oil prices in the Asia Pacific region experienced a downward trend. The pricing chart initially showed an increment due to heightened downstream demand, balanced by sufficient inventory levels. Production costs surged, especially in the Philippines, where prices steadily rose until late August 2023. This trend extended to other nations, including Indonesia, as shortages in specific regions led to price hikes. Elevated fuel and raw material prices intensified cost pressures for businesses in August, but some offered discounts, easing inflation. As September approached, reduced demand, particularly in the Philippines, led to a decline in Coconut Oil prices. The region's record-high production in 2022, influenced by favorable weather conditions and increased coconut tree cultivation, resulted in surplus stocks of upstream copra among merchants, contributing to the temporary drop in prices.

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Throughout the third quarter of 2023, Coconut Oil prices in North America exhibited a northward trend until August, fueled by sustained local demand. However, as September neared its end, prices took a southbound turn. The rise until August was driven by growing domestic demand and adverse weather conditions in Southeast Asia, including droughts and floods, impacting coconut production. Indonesia, a major producer, faced a drought, affecting overall production. Unfavorable weather conditions also affected Malaysia and the Philippines. Rising input costs and the euro's depreciation against the US dollar further contributed to the price increase. As September progressed, prices significantly decreased in response to reduced demand for lauric acid and related products, as consumers shifted their focus to back-to-school shopping and vacations during the holiday season.

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