-Trade setup for July 4, 2022: Key things to know before stock market's Opening Bell
Indian stock markets managed to claw back losses on Friday, led by gains in financial stocks. Government export duties on oil products had triggered a plunge in energy majors Reliance Industries and ONGC. The NSE Nifty 50 index on Friday ended 0.18% lower at 15,752 while BSE Sensex slipped to 52,907 but managed to close the week marginally.
On Friday, stocks made a strong intraday recovery to finish higher but the rebound was not enough to erase their losses for the week. The S&P 500 rose 1.1%, snapping a four-day losing streak for the benchmark index, which still posted its fourth losing week in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.9%.
SGX Nifty outlook
SGX Nifty today is down by over 20 points and it is trading around 15,720 levels.
"Immediate support placed for SGX Nifty is at 15,520 whereas major support for SGX Nifty is placed at 15,340 mark. On the upper side, immediate hurdle placed for SGX Nifty is 15,980 while strong resistance for SGX Nifty today is 16,150 mark," said Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Research at IIFL Securities. The IIFL Securities expert said that SGX Nifty is expected to remain sideways today.
Asian markets' early trends
In early morning deals, Asian stocks are trading flat. Japanese Nikkei is up around 0.59 per cent at 26,089, Hang Seng is down 0.80 per cent at 21,452, China's Shanghai is up by 0.30 per cent at 14938 whereas South Korean KSPI is down 0.32 per cent at 2,284 levels.
Key factors to watch this week
Global trends, crude oil movement, rupee's performance and FII activity may keep Nifty volatile this week ahead of the start of the quarterly earnings season, say analysts. IT major TCS would announce its quarterly numbers on July 8, kicking off the earnings season.
There is selling exhaustion at lower levels as market is bouncing back from every intra-day dip amid headwinds like fall in global markets, rupee weakness, and windfall tax on domestic refineries.
On the global front, US jobs numbers and the minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last meeting will also be closely watched.
Sectors in Focus
“Among the sectors, we expect auto and FMCG to continue the prevailing momentum while other sectors may selective pitch in as well. Participants should maintain their focus on identifying stock-specific opportunities but keep a check on leveraged trades," said Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking.
On Friday, FIIs sold Indian equities worth ₹2,324 crore on a net basis while DIIs bought worth ₹1,310 crore. So far in 2022, FIIs have sold Indian equities worth more than ₹2 lakh crore, weighing both on Indian markets and rupee.
“FIIs are still selling but the momentum has come down significantly. Therefore, bulls will look for a relief rally if global markets remain stable," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Nifty Technical Outlook
“Technically, Nifty is respecting the 15700-15500 zone beautifully. However, 20-DMA is acting as a strong hurdle in the upside which is currently placed at 15827 level; above this, we can expect a short-covering rally towards 16050/16200 levels. The bulls will have the upper hand till the Nifty trades above the 15500 level while below 15500, the weakness may again resume towards 15350/15180 levels," Mr Meena said.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said: “The recent consolidation in the index indicates caution among the participants and the Nifty needs a decisive break above 15,900 levels to extend the rebound towards the 16,200 zone else the sideways to negative bias will continue. On the downside, the 15,100-15,350 zone would act as a support."
Nifty Bank Technical Outlook
On Friday, the banking sector index closed 0.35% higher at 33,539. “Bank Nifty is respecting 33000 level. However 20-DMA is acting as a strong hurdle which is currently placed at 33700 level; above this, we can expect a short-covering rally towards 34150/34500 levels while if it slips below 33000 level then 32500 is the next critical support level," said Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart Ltd.
“If we talk about the derivative data then the long exposure of FIIs in the index future stands at 16% and the put-call ratio is sitting at 1.14 level therefore there is good scope for a short-covering rally," Meena said.
On stocks front, “we witnessed long rollovers in M&M, ITC, Hero MotoCorp, Ashok Leyland, BEL, Eicher Motors, MCX, Siemens, Cummins India etc. While stocks like Kotak Bank, Deepak Nitrite, Biocon, PEL etc. had short rollovers," Kotak Securities said on June rollover data.
US bond yield
“US 10 years bond yield is up by 0.25 per cent at 119.56 whereas US 30 years bond yield is up by 0.27 per cent at 139.72," said Anuj Gupta. He said that US bond yield is in positive territory and it may continue to attract investors ahead of the US Fed meeting scheduled this week.
Outlook for crude oil price
"Oil price today fell in early morning Asian trade on fears of global recession and lower OPED output. In global commodity markets, crude oil is in the broader range of $107.70 per barrel to $113 per barrel and overall trend for crude oil is negative," said Anuj Gupta.
-Jeff Bezos slams Joe Biden's appeal for lower petrol prices
Gasoline/petrol prices at the pump have become a symbol of broader price rises in the US
Joe Biden has regularly attacked oil companies, saying they only care about profits and not the well-being of the average consumer
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has criticized President Joe Biden for calling on oil companies to lower sky-high gasoline prices. On Saturday, in a tweet, the US President said: “My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you're paying for the product. And do it now."
In a tweet, Jeff Bezos on Saturday said Biden's remarks amounted to "either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics. Ouch. Inflation is far too important a problem for the White House to keep making statements like this."
Gasoline prices in the US have been above $5 a gallon since early June, far high than the $3 a gallon level of a year ago. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre rejected the criticism from Bezos, arguing that oil prices had dropped by about $15 a barrel in the past month while prices at the pump had "barely" fallen.
"But I guess it's not surprising that you think oil and gas companies using market power to reap record profits at the expense of the American people is the way our economy is supposed to work," she wrote on Twitter.
Oil prices have jumped 40% this year amid supply concerns after Russia invaded Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Moscow. John Kirby, White House spokesman on national security issues, also defended the president Sunday in an appearance on Fox News.
"The president is working very, very hard across many fronts... to try to bring that price down," Kirby said.
Global oil prices are down today with Brent crude near $110 a barrel as fears of global recession weighed on the market.
“Demand concerns are high amid mixed economic data and worries about impact of aggressive monetary tightening on economic activity. Concerns about Chinese economy are also high amid continuing adherence to zero tolerance COVID policy," Kotak Securities said in a note.
“Adding to supply concerns are recent supply disruptions in Ecuador and Libya due to political issues and prospect of strike in Norway. While global supply remains tight, OPEC and allies maintained their production policy and will add another 648,000 barrels per day in the month of August," the brokerage added.
This story has been published from a wire agency feed without modifications to the text. Only the headline has been changed.